Midterms 2026 · Election Day: Nov. 3
Who's going to win?
What people betting real money on Kalshi and Polymarket expect, live. 62% means traders think there's about a 62% chance.
◆ Close call means the favorite is at 60% or less, or Kalshi and Polymarket disagree. Those are the races to watch, and they get a drop.
| Race | Kalshi favorite | Polymarket favorite |
|---|---|---|
| House control | 91%Democrats | 93%Democrats |
| Senate control | 68%Democrats | 69%Democrats |
| Iowa Senate◆ Close callThe favorite is at 60% or less | 59%Ashley HinsonR | — |
| Alaska Senate | 76%Democrats | 75%Mary PeltolaD |
| Georgia Senate | 96%Jon OssoffD | — |
| Maine Senate | 66%Troy JacksonD | 66%Troy JacksonD |
| Michigan Senate | 70%Abdul El-SayedD | 70%Abdul El-SayedD |
| New Hampshire Senate | 90%Chris PappasD | — |
| North Carolina Senate | 96%Roy CooperD | — |
| Ohio Senate | — | 70%Sherrod BrownD |
| Texas Senate | 68%James TalaricoD | 68%James TalaricoD |
Markets show expectations, not facts, and they can be wrong. Not betting advice. Polymarket's international exchange isn't available to U.S. users.